Some wind damage has been reported in two key growing regions, but other areas are still looking at excellent crops.
South Africa is now expected to ship around 21mn cartons of avocados this year, a reduction of around 1mn cartons when compared with the initial crop estimate.
In what is likely to be a difficult season, exporters say they are facing tougher marketing conditions in the UK and European markets, where the bulk of South African avocados are sold.
Peru entered the market earlier this year, while growers are also facing higher production and export costs due to disruption caused by war in the Middle East.
Derek Donkin, CEO of Subtrop, said the effect of wind damage in the Southern Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal is currently being assessed.
“We still have a good crop, and all our customers will be well supplied till the end of the season,” he told Fruitnet.
Hass and Hass-type varieties make up 60 per cent of the crop.
“So far we have smooth logistical operations through the port of Cape Town, from where 95 per cent of our fruit will be shipped,” Donkin continued.
Meanwhile, preparations for the World Avocado Congress, which will return to the country for the first time in 40 years in September 2027, are well underway.
One of the questions to be answered this year is to what extent South Africa will ship more fruit to Asia, where market access continues to improve.
Exporters pointed out, however, that the marketing window in China is short, effectively ending when Peruvian volumes arrive.
“After initial euphoria about new breakthroughs reality normally kicks in,” one exporter observed. “We must match supply with protocol requirements and marketing windows and this often limits our options.”
South African growers also enjoy a strong local market, and it is calculated that in both the retail and informal sector another 21mn cartons will be consumed inside the country.
This is backed by a strong promotional programme that espouses the quality of avocados in food and dishes.
The late-growing regions of the Southern Cape, as well as the early regions in the north of the country, have extended the availability of avocados for both export and local markets.
The country is now almost self-sufficient for avocados with only small volumes imported from countries such as Tanzania during January each year.
